Read 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century by Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr. Online


A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready? These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action....

Title : 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century
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ISBN : 9780553805390
Format Type : Hardcover
Number of Pages : 334 Pages
Status : Available For Download
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7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century Reviews

  • Paul
    2019-05-11 01:30

    Looking at the changing face of war in the 21st Century, this book looks at several deadly scenarios that will threaten America's, and the world's, security in the near future.A large part of the world's oil tankers have to travel through two geographic choke points: the Strait of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, and the Persian Gulf. What would happen to the price of oil, and the world economy, if one was closed because a supertanker was sunk in the most inconvenient spot, and the other was closed because Iran decided to flex its political muscle?Muslim terrorists set off several black-market nuclear weapons in US cities. Beset with internal strife, China decides to take back Taiwan, once and for all. They also send diesel submarines all over the world, to cause lots of economic trouble for any country who considers doing something about it. The Pakistani government collapses, and some of its nuclear weapons find their way into the hands of the more fundamentalist members of the military. There's one about America dealing with a major cyberattack, and one about what will happen after America withdraws from Iraq (faster than it intended). Remember bird flu, from a couple of years ago? Well, it's back, mutated into a form that can be easily transmitted from person to person. Shopping malls and other public places are deserted, hospitals are flooded with the sick and dying, America doesn't have nearly enough retroviral drugs even for emergency personnel, and it takes time to make more. To make things worse, the White House has just gotten word of a human flood of 8 million sick Latin Americans, desperate to reach America. They are scheduled to reach the US-Mexican border in a couple of days.This is a very sobering, and utterly fascinating, look at what the future may hold. It's not an attempt to predict the future, but to show the sort of things that senior planners at the Pentagon are, or had better be, thinking about. Highly recommended.

  • William
    2019-04-27 21:29

    So how many ways can the United States lose in a future conflict or crisis? Andrew Krepenivich counts the ways in his "7 Deadly Scenarios." Scenarios are basically hypothetical problems that are within the span of possibility in the real world, which planners use to practice crafting policies and responses. They might fall "out of the blue," but even an unexpected hypothetical will jar the reader into thinking about solutions from different angles, perhaps outside the boundaries of conventional expectations. Each scenario is a tidy nightmare--rogue nukes being set off in the USA, a new global pandemic, Pakistan collapses, China implodes. In each instance, the US has a direct or indirect interest that is being challenged. But due to limited American power, lack of information or the unpredictability of bold action, policy makers and presidents can find themselves shackled and gagged, making weak responses to strong challenges. This does not mean the USA is doomed to be a "pitiful giant," to quote Nixon. But it does mean having an approach to crisis that can emerge from practice.Here the book calls for a solution that no longer exists. Krepenevich advocates Joint Forces Command to be the champion of contingency planning, gaming and scenario development. But this command was just axed in a round of Pentagon budget cutting after Krepenvich's book made it to print. What branch of the Pentagon steps forward to develop this mission remains to be seen. "7 Deadly Scenarios" is a very quick read, but don't let the book's brevity deceive you. Crisis management is the acid test of every presidency. The nightmares of Krepenevich's strategic imagination could come to pass (let's hope they don't). But they are food for the reader's thought, and a good challenge to conventional expectations.

  • James
    2019-04-26 00:32

    The scenarios the author presents are very plausible. They're grounded in projections of present reality, take place in the near future, and are carefully thought out. Anyone interested in military science, geopolitics, or near-future economics should read this. I hope the leaders of the world are thinking about possibilities like these so that they won't be caught unprepared if they start to happen.

  • Cherith Cutestory
    2019-05-24 22:29

    Then again, what else do you expect from a book that Joe Lieberman praised? Andrew Krepinevich's book oozes so much hatred, it really makes your jaw drops.The book propounds 7 catastrophic scenarios. Five of them are caused by or directly related to Muslims. While the other two aren't, Krepinevich nevertheless managed to insert a few parts about "radical Islamists".Chapter 1 is about the implosion of Pakistan.- In page 31, Krepinevich mentions something about Jihadists and "terror campaigns in Afghanistan and India". Then he writes about "Jihadist guerrilla and suicide attacks in Kashmir". Krepinevich writes it with a straight face, dearly wishing that the reader knows nothing about the decades-long streak of Indian war crimes in Kashmir, which includes torture, rape and mass murder. A recent Wikileaks cable is among the plethora of evidence to document this, mentioning India's "systematic torture of Kashmiri civilians". Could this cause a violent reaction? Couldn't be, because we all know that we enjoy being raped, tortured and murdered by foreign armies. As for Afghanistan, American war crimes abound on a regular basis there, where airstriking weddings has become a national American pastime, so no need to expound there.- In page 38, Krepinevich continues to wage his anti-Islamic crusade, writing about Pakistani General Zia Al Haqq and his "unwise" attempt of instituting separate Islamic court systems, promoting Islamist officers, etc. This whole chapter reads like some kind of discarded right wing afterthought; like something even Glenn Beck would find laughably hyperbolic.- In the same page, he claims that madrassa schools taught 'Wahhabism', a recent and meaningless term primarily used by non-Muslims, very rarely by Muslims. This is only one of Krepinevich's many factual errors.- In page 41 he claims that young Pakistanis are "severely" indoctrinated to become "terrorists". The latter word is used liberally throughout the book.- Krepinevich tries hard to mask his hatred behind a brittle and transparent facade of objectivity, but the power of hatred overtakes him in page 46, where he actually used the words "Islamist cancer".- In the same page, he mentions the war on "Islamists in Iraq and Afghanistan". Because that's the problem with the world right now. See, the US illegitimately invaded those two countries and committed unspeakable horrors against the innocents there (war crimes still going as of this review). But Krepinevich thinks that's all fine; the problem there is that people *resisted* the invasion.- In the same page, Krepinevich writes about the gang rape that was inflicted upon a Pakistani girl by tribal elders as some arbitrary and cruel punishment. Krepinevich claims that the elders acted based on their interpretation Islamic shariah. Like so many other things in the book, he pulled that out of his backside, since not a single source I've read even mentions Sharia as a possible basis for this crime, and nothing in Islamic Sharia could even remotely be interpreted to yield a judgment like this.- In note 31, the author takes absurdity to new levels sane and insane people dare not dream of. He claims that "In the eyes of Islamists, women are relegated to second-class status, which they share with infidels and slaves". The author is just pouring it on at this point, intoxicated senseless by a cocktail of malice and ignorance.- In the same note, he writes that Islamic laws discriminate against women, and cites an example: "They effectively deny protection for a women against rape, since four male witnesses must confirm its occurrence". Prejudice blinded Krepinevich and made him fall into a contradiction: if four male witnesses *must* confirm what they saw, then that means practically all women would go free, since it's hardly possible that 4 people would see and confirm intercourse. Unless the woman is an exhibitionist with no qualms about sex in public, this is not a common occurrence, if it occurs at all. And notice how Krepinevich mentions 'rape' here. The 4 witnesses condition is for adultery/premarital sex, not rape. A raped woman is considered a victim under Islamic sharia.- Also in the same page, in note 30, he claims that honor killings "made a strong comeback with the rise of the Jihadists". Unsourced of course, and absurd, as this practice is tribal/cultural, not Islamic, since Islam forbids this kind of thing. Even Wikipedia, one of the author's commonly cited sources, is absent here.- In page 51, Krepinevich is so consumed with hatred that he threw away that microscopic semblance of objectivity that he didn't have and wrote an outlandish, hilarious scenario in which the big scary monster, 'radical Islamists', seize power in Pakistan. What happens next? Well, they want to blow everything up of course. You know those Muslims, they're terrorists by nature, right? Right, therefore Krepinevich should not be ridiculed for writing that Pakistan would then become a "sanctuary and breeding ground for Jihadists who would go abroad attempting to subvert other Muslims states and attack non-Muslims". No, this isn't Pat Robertson who's writing this. Not Daniel Pipes or Geert Wilders. And even though it very much resembles something some flag-waving backwoods teen might anonymously write on a white supremacist website, it's actually a serious statement by a "distinguished" (his word, back jacket) visiting "professor" at a university. Ironically, it's the US who's been subverting governments around the world for well over half a century now, with covert operations and overt invasions being sanctioned and sold to the people by the likes of Krepinevich, dedicated government propagandists and hypocrites of the first order.Chapter 2 - "War Comes to America". This scenario is about terrorists detonating several nuclear bombs inside the US. The terrorists are -- naturally -- Muslims.- Krepinevich endorses torture in this chapter, claiming that it's a successful way to extract information, despite virtually all the evidence from real life opposing it completely.- The author does a good job of masking his racism, but as seen in the last chapter, he's only human, so he slips on occasion. In this scenario, after a few bombs cause heavy casualties, Krepinevich writes: "one US tabloid headline sums the thoughts of many: 'Rag-Heads 60,000; U.S. 0.'" (page 86). Notice his endorsement in "the thoughts of many".- The author makes the claim (in page 88) that Muslims started the war against the US when Iranians held American hostages at the onset of the revolution. Ironically, it was the US who overthrew Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953, Iran's democratically elected president, in favor of the Shah, who oppressed the Iranians so much that they backed Khomeini's revolution. Krepinevich also conveniently ignores the fact that -- after years of Haganah terrorism and war crimes against Muslims -- the US had no problem recognizing Israel 10 minutes after it was established in 1948. In the decades to follow, the US would arm this new terrorist state with every weapon known to man, knowing full well the atrocities the Jewish regime has been committing on a regular basis against Muslims, and supplies this racist, genocidal state with whatever it needs to further torture and mass murder Muslims. Krepinevich doesn't think that's necessary to mention, simply deciding that history starts at 1979 with everything before that being irrelevant, thus the Muslims are to blame. It's frightening to know someone like this is actually entrusted to educate people.- To further fan the flames of hatred, he writes that one of the nuclear bombs was stored in a mosque.Chapter 3 is about a pandemic driving a massive wave of Mexican refugees to the US. You think, how can this relate in any way to Muslims? Well, Krepinevich, to his (dis)credit, found a way. At the top of page 103, he writes about the 2008 presidential campaign which "was dominated by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the broader problem of militant Islam". He conveniently refers to illegal and criminal US invasions merely as 'wars', as if to shift the blame from a one sided aggression to a two-sided shared-blame affair.Chapter 4 is about Armageddon, with Iran precipitating a regional war.- As is the case with plenty other parts of the book, Krepinevich gets his facts wrong. In page 131, he states that Sunnis comprise 20% of Iraqis. But the number is at least 35% since he apparently didn't include the Kurds (who are mostly Sunnis) in his numbers.- Only two pages later, Krepinevich screws up again. He mentions the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, then mentions that Hafez Al Asad, Syria's leader, looked to be "going wobbly" in the early stages of the invasion. Too bad for Krepinevich, Hafez was dead 3 years before the invasion. Again, this is a "professor".- In page 140 of the same chapter, Krepinevich praises the Israeli apartheid wall.- In page 142, the author writes an absolute hilarity. He mentions a rocket attack against Israel, followed by "the Israeli retaliatory strike on a minor target in the offending area". A minor target? And only in the offending area? The Jenin massacre, the two Qana massacres, and plenty of other genocidal acts by the Jewish state would all beg to differ. Israel strikes everywhere and anywhere, whether provoked or not. Krepinevich is alone against a rumbling tidal wave of facts, trying hard to polish the Israeli image. He repeats this absurdity two pages later when he describes Israeli retialiation strikes as 'tit for tat'.- In page 147, Krepinevich puts away his shoe shining kit and dons his psycho analysis cap. In note 51, he writes: "To assuage their wounded pride, many Arab states maintain that US and British air strikes were part of the initial attacks during the 1967 Six-Day War". Someone with a modicum of professionalism would've written something like "Arab states falsely claim...". But Krepinevich will not let objectivity get in the way of his tabloid sensationalism.- Counting Krepinevich's factual errors is truly a daunting task, therefore I shall make this one the last. In page 149, Krepinevich confuses two different mosques, Dome of the Rock, and Al Aqsa mosque, as one mosque.Chapter 5 is about China effectively preventing the US from exercising any power in East Asia, thus securing its dominance in the region.- Just like Giulani in his 2008 campaign was so good at inserting '9/11' in every possible and impossible subject, Krepinevich can insert the phrase 'radical Islamists' anywhere. In page 171 of this chapter about China, he mentions the war with "raidcal Islamist elements".- Wait, you think he's done? He's not. Though this chapter is about China, Krepinevich is not content with blaming every problem in the world on Muslims just once. So again (in page 189), he writes the following: "a succession of US administrations, distracted by the Long War with radical Islamic states and groups...". Simply amazing. Krepinevich indeed has a skill. And as usual, the blame is never with the US; it's always with 'radical Islamists'. When the US invaded Afghanistan, it was their fault for not accepting the barbaric invasion with open arms. When the US invaded Iraq, it was radical Islamist who were the problem as well. Apparently, Krepinevich believes that self defense is an abhorrent act, and only the most 'radical' of people would resort to such a despicable, inhumane, revolting offense.Krepinevich tries as much as possible to mention the word 'Islam' and link it with a negative notion, even -- as you can see here -- in totally irrelevant chapters. His mission seems to be inculcating the notion of "Islam Bad, America/Israel Good". The author subscribes to the long-cherished principle (in elementary school 1st grade classes all over the world) that repeating something many times will refute any and all opposing facts.Chapter 6 is about an attack meant to weaken the global economy and thus beget intended chaos. Who perpetrates the attack? Well, Muslims of course, who else?Chapter 7 is about Iraq descending into anarchy, thanks to Muslim states and groups.Even the one fairly interesting part of the book is ruined by Krepinevich's incompetence. Since the scenarios are fictional, many of the notes are fictional as well. For instance, any given page could contain a note in which there's a reference to a book or interview published in, say, 2014, with fictitious names and quotes as well. That could've been fun, if only Krepinevich didn't mix real facts with fiction. Half the notes are fiction, the other half real (well, at least subject to his definition of the word). This means you have to check the year in every single note to know if the witty/controversial quote you just read is real or made up. This gets tiresome pretty quickly, and you lose interest in the notes altogether.Conclusion: an interesting premise ruined by a weak approach and stunning, venomous hatred. The whole book is nothing more than an exercise in intellectual malevolence, conceptualized around one essential idea: using fiction as a means to advance Islamophobia. A similar (and free) experience is to read any war mongering right-wing propaganda website, basically the same 4 primary tenets will be there as well: hate, misinformation, hyperbole and self-righteous nationalism. And if you don't want that effort, I'll summarize the book for you in two sentences:1. Muslims are immoral subhumans who do nothing but evil, worst of all when they fight for their freedom.2. America and Israel are moral superhumans who do nothing but good, best of all when they commit war crimes in illegitimate wars.There, saved you the time of reading 334 pages. You're welcome.

  • Ray Gazzo
    2019-05-07 18:20

    Ray GazzoMs. CairnsEnglish 410/10/177 Deadly Scenarios7 Deadly Scenarios was written by Andrew F. Krepinevich. Published in 2009, Krepinevich reports on future world affairs that threaten the United States; Border disputes and immigration, the Nuclear Black Market, China’s growing civil unrest, and Pakistan political collapse. Krepinevich, a graduate of West Point and Harvard, has served as a consultant on military affairs for the Department of Defense and Central Intelligence Agency, he currently serves on the Defense Policy Board and Transformation Advisory Group of the Joint Forces Command.  World chaos ensues in both the 1st and 3rd world countries, many powerful nations are brought to their knees with political and economic unrest. This book reveals the forces that play ambitious roles in world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both enemies and allies can be expected to pursue if war is near and the U.S.’s role to prepare before it's too late. Readers with a distaste in non-fiction and IRA might find the book to be slow and irrelevant. To the people who love the study of IRA (International Relations and Affairs) and foreign intelligence, will be focused with this book. 7 Deadly Scenarios brings a first person look into future affairs and allows you to see the world for what it really is. According to the book, the most pressing issue today is the collapse of the Pakistani’s and their nuclear arsenal. As Pakistan's political climate is crumbling, the issue presses of what happens to the Nuclear/WMD arsenal if their is no state to control it. ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban are heavily influenced around Pakistan, if the country collapses and anarchy ensues, these terrorist organizations will be able to control Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and kill hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children. Krepinevich is not easily contradictable, he brings facts to the table from government agencies and inside reporting. You cannot dispute the facts of Krepinevich’s reporting, however you can dispute the United States government influence and policy. The Iraq and Afghanistan war has been America’s longest running wars. Starting after 9/11, the Bush administration pursued Saddam Hussein in Iraq over false intelligence reports indicating that a WMD presence was in Iraq. Afghanistan was pursued by the Marines and U.S. Army in order to eliminate that Taliban presence and to destroy supplies distributed to terrorist organizations fighting the United States. Past experience from the Vietnam War has shown that the United States cannot fight forever and the larger the problem becomes the longer the war. When the WMD presence was not found, the U.S. remained in Iraq, which sparked protests across the U.S. and the World for a “unlawful” occupation of Iraq. The United States has slowly withdrew from Iraq, leaving behind a destroyed society incapable of running itself. Islamic Extremist groups and religious differences have spread through the disfigured country. ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) are responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq and Syria. 7 Deadly Scenarios presents me with future world conflicts that our country will possibly face soon. This book also gave me a more open mind that allowed me to see other countries and the struggles they face now and in the dire future. I urge readers to consider this book, not only for recreation, but for political policy. Donald Trump is the first president without political background, however he has surrounded his cabinet with some of the most fierce and intellectual military leaders such as James “Mad Dog” Mattis (SECDEF) and General John Kelly and Homeland Security Advisor. These men have been playing the game long enough to steer America out of conflicts until it is truly necessary. The foresight of the American future is going to be determined by our political appointments, but it is also the job of the citizens to see the future for themselves and how they can help to build a better America and world for the future to come.Word Count: (671)

  • Alan Chen
    2019-04-29 19:12

    Disclaimer: I’m not a military strategist or planner, so my review will be solely based on my perspective as a civilian who read it for entertainment and curiosity.Note: I read the original version, not knowing that the author released an updated edition with an additional scenario (ISBN 9780553384727). I was able to glean most of the new material off the Amazon preview, but it’s not the same.This was superbly fun to read. I remember being absolutely riveted by the techno-thriller type scenarios. In that sense, it’s definitely approaches the “What Ifs” series of alternative history books based on historical events.To show that the US Military is unprepared for war in the 21st century, the author crafted a series of scenarios where the US might run into trouble. The scenarios are very well written and absolutely entertaining as things repeatedly spiral out of control. Though written from the point of view of someone dispassionately taking the broad view instead of focusing in on individual soldiers, the narrative is still engrossing. Though the scenarios vary widely (ranging from nuclear terrorism to the pleasant surprise of a military strategist thinking of pandemic flu) there are a few common threads. *Most prominent of these is how scarce, finite resources mean that the military and civilian forces can’t be everywhere at once - state governors have to decide whether to call up the National Guard to maintain order when doing so will depopulate local emergency service departments where a disproportionate amount of Guard members work in their day jobs. *Additionally, hallmark, attention-grabbing attacks can be planned and carried out for a relatively cheap price while forcing the defender to spend many times that amount to respond and prevent. Numerous times, an attacker strikes a vital target and forces the United States, an ally, or even, in one case, the entire world to expend vast amounts of resources covering all similar sites. Searching container ships for potential WMDs cripples the velocity of trade and preys on the just-in-time economic system that has reduced inventory to the absolute minimum for maximum profit. An attacker can quickly exhaust a defense by salvoing (or threatening to salvo) scores of relatively cheap munitions to which the defender has to counter with vastly more expensive guided munitions. *Finally, the US military is unprepared to deal with the scale of activities that would be involved with countering many small, shadowy attackers operating in a large area and, if need be, performing regime change on a rogue country or stabilizing a collapsed one. In all cases, the US would be stretched far too thin, with manpower requirements for just one of these operations often exceeding the total number of existing units!As an aside, though the purpose of these scenarios is specifically stated to get people thinking about potential situations that the US could face in the future rather than trying to predict the future, it is still interesting to see how the world is faring 9 years later. Some scenarios are now less likely; the backbone of the internet has been hardened and dispersed against attack. Others have not changed much at all (compare and contrast securing loose nukes in a collapsed Pakistan vs. North Korea’s burgeoning nuclear program), while others are completely new (the ongoing conflict in Ukraine resembles the a low-level version of the open warfare seen decades ago). As usual, I have a few sore points with the work.*Fake footnotes! The author liberally sprinkles footnotes and citations to back up certain points that he makes in the course of his scenarios. For instance, the scenarios will often describe a huge, spectacular attack, but make the point that planners should have been aware this was possible because a smaller, similar attack took place before, which leads to a footnote citing a publication or news story. However, because the scenarios take place in the (near) future, the author necessarily has to craft fake people and quotes to flesh out the story. This is all well and good. However, I feel he crosses a line when he adds citations to those fake quotes and papers, with the only clue that they’re fake being that they are dated after the publication date of this book. Why confuse the issue? The author does forewarn the reader of these fake footnotes in the intro, but it’s still unprofessional. Just put the fake quote down and don’t have a citation.*The work gets a little monotonous after awhile because the author absolutely loves using the 2002 Millennium Challenge, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the Iraqi insurgency as signs that “we should have known.” These three learning examples are cited over and over again to show that hard pounding conventional forces cannot adequately deal with small amounts of shadowy attackers or swarm attacks of guided and unguided munitions that can overwhelm a force’s defenses. At times, some of the scenarios feel like updated and expanded versions of the above three examples.*Great inconsistency in the use of names in these future scenarios. Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev show up as themselves in two scenarios, but the Chinese leader is always given a made up name. Choose one or the other!*Similarly, the author will occasionally jump between present and past tense to describe similar things. More annoying than crippling, but it’s still a sign of imperfect editing. RATING: 4 stars (“I enjoyed reading it, but it might not have made a lasting impression on me.”)I have no idea how useful this book is to an actual military professional or a civilian involved with the planning process, so I can’t comment on its technical merits. What I can say is that the scenarios, for all their aforementioned flaws of style and repetitiveness, are absolutely entertaining and engrossing. At their best, they resemble a detailed plot summary of a decent techno-thriller. I took off 1 star for the flaws which, though admittedly minor, were numerous enough to noticeably detract from my experience. Additionally, this book didn’t leave me with any lasting impression (besides the argument that the author is making) and I’m not sure the book would hold up on another reading.TL;DR Very entertaining techno-thriller like writing held back by minor but persistent flaws.

  • Cropredy
    2019-05-13 01:24

    Well, are you putting off an indulgence purchase for yourself because you just don't feel the time is right? That the economy or your job or your feelings about the future register towards the negative on your mental scale? Go out and buy that indulgence because after reading this book, you'll feel that if you're alive after one of these plausible scenarios come to pass, you'll feel lucky to have electricity and food so why not give yourself some pleasure now?As a college student, I read 'Thinking about the Unthinkable' by Herman Kahn (nuclear war scenarios vis-a-vis the USSR) and Krepinevich pays homage to Kahn with thinking about unthinkable political-military-economic disasters that could come to pass in the near future. The book was written in 2009 and all of the seven scenarios could still come to pass. Krepenevich doesn't say how to solve the scenarios or even how to prevent them, he just unfolds them as if you were living the daily/weekly/monthly drumbeat of negative news coming from within or external to the United States' borders. In fact, in each scenario, you can easily believe that our current political and military response would be inadequate and the outcome for the US would be a considerable diminution in our power, way of life, and economic well-being.I could only read one scenario per evening as they were each compelling and plausibly depressing. The three that stood out in my mind were:a) the multiple terrorist nukes exploded in US citiesb) the decision by China to use military power to capture Taiwan and break US Asian allies.c) the swamping of US borders with Latin Americans escaping from a deadly bird flu into an over-stressed US health care system (think 1918 influenza pandemic but worse).Of course, reading futurist predictions from 2009 in 2015 can point out where Krepenevich misforecast. In particular, he repeatedly predicted huge rises in oil prices and did not predict the rise of shale oil. Nor does he have any kind of scenario involving competition for water. Krepenevich does use Islamist terrorists in several scenarios and that still holds true in some minds today in 2015.The last chapter is a policy prescription for how to organize the government to better plan for catastrophic outcomes (avoid another Pearl Harbor or 9/11) and is written for inside-the-Beltway types. This final chapter is filled with acronyms of various organization units. I mostly skipped it.Overall, unlike a post-apocalyptic novel/movie, the book is grounded in the real world of politics, economics and the limits of our current force posture versus asymmetric enemies. As we start the political season (again), you can readily see that candidates are woefully lacking in the depth of their thinking about the nation's risk profile and that foreign policy is more than just 'standing by Israel' or 'drone-striking ISIS out of existence'. Make the candidates read this book and ask how they would respond.

  • Bruce
    2019-05-17 20:07

    This book has a published date of February 2009 which must be born in mind as the author uses a combination of real and fictional footnotes in each of his scenarios making them seem more authentic. All seven are plausible and elements of some have already occurred. The subtitle shows them being militarily based, which they are because it is anticipated the military will deal with all of the issues. Be it an implosion of foreign countries, actual attacks in the US or world wide attacks on lines of communication (both physical and digital the military is expected to be involved. Even the Pandemic scenario calls for the use of the military. [I had finished reading the Pandemic scenario on 5 August 2012, the next morning I looked at the front page of the Metro section of the Washington Post to see the headline advising people going to county fairs refrain from petting animals because of the spread of Swine Flu.] As the author says, the scenarios are to point out problems not present solutions. In the introduction he provides some historical background regarding military exercises and how they often change from free play to scripted while the last war is fought. In my personal experience, the 'lessons learned' from exercises are too often merely lessons noted because little is done to change attitudes. Unfortunately, all of these scenarios are militarily based. Our nation needs more internal infrastructure scenarios, e.g. the breakdown of the power grid, the deterioration of underground pipelines, the pollution of aquifers, degradation of transportation routes. While more than half our national budget is being spent on the military, the nation's infrastructure has gone wanting.

  • William Crosby
    2019-05-13 20:19

    Keep in mind that the author is not trying to predict the future, nor does he offer a solution for each scenario. Do that and you won't feel frustrated. Otherwise, the book has a good mix of history (why is a particular scenario developing), current US capabilities (the focus is from a US military point of view so don't look for the author to suggest that we get rid of cars or stop our reliance on oil), and the capabilities and projected mindset of others. Only one scenario does not deal with a specific human enemy: that would be how we would be affected by a flu pandemic. A "fun" aspect is the use of both real and imaginary footnotes. He uses accepted footnote and bibliographic protocol for both past (real) journal entries/speeches/books and future sources of information. Just pay attention to the date (after 2009). There is an inordinate emphasis on Muslim terrorism as a significant factor in 5 of the scenarios. Although the point of these scenarios is to get the military to be resilient and think outside the norm so that we can be ready, there are some scenarios missed because of the overemphasis on Islam. I don't know if that is because the author does not like Muslims or if he just thinks they are a significant factor in the future. I think the 9/11 attacks may have over-heightened our sensitivity to Muslim terrorism so that other possibilities are being ignored/downplayed (for example, the growth of neo-Nazi/Aryan groups and their militaristic/survivalist attitude could result in some significant problems for the US).

  • Richard
    2019-05-06 19:21

    Personally, I wasn't as interested in this book as I thought I would be. So my personal rating would be 2 stars. However, it's not the author's fault that my level of interest is low. Objectively, I would say the book earns at least 4 stars. I split the difference and awarded 3 stars.Just like the reviews and blurbs say, the author presents 7 possible future conflicts in order to guide US planning and strategy. This isn't pie-in-the-sky stuff. Every scenario is believable and is firmly grounded in today's facts. For that reason, the book is kind of depressing.I think the primary audience for this book is military, government, and business planners and top-level managers, and our elected officials.My takeaways are, first, that the public needs to insist that the President and Congress plan and prepare for likely future challenges and quit frittering away our resources on non-essential and no-longer-relevent stuff. Second, we all need to conserve our personal resources (savings, etc.) and not get too aggressive in our investments. More shocks to the system are likely coming.

  • Jack
    2019-05-21 21:28

    Plague driving an surge of immigration across our borders. Nuclear bombs smuggled into our cities. Cyberattacks cutting off communications. Oil production destroyed by Iran.The scenarios go on and on. The future is simply that...the future. We can dream up the most horrific of scenarios (and yes we do) and berate our defense forces to prepare for them. Every single one of them by the way. 7 Deadly Scenarios is just that. An enticing list of scenarios that demand our attention. Let's face it. Some of them may indeed come true. Or they may become half-truths. Nonetheless, the military does prepare for scenarios that are probabilistic. Occam's Razor says that, "Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected." Scenarios are built upon assumptions and therefore should be guided by this principle as well. The Defense Forces of any country simply cannot and should not prepare for every scenario. They should pick those that are of the highest probability and develop their acquisition, training, and force structure based upon those scenarios. The 7 Deadly scenarios may be a bridge too far.

  • Chad Manske
    2019-05-05 00:26

    I first met Andrew Krepenevich when I was running the Air Force's strategy division in 2008. He was finalizing this book and would publish at the beginning of 2009; and after having read it his brilliance is further enhanced in my mind. What he brings to light in this volume should keep most defense planners and strategists up at night. The worst of the worst scenarios are played out with the helpless United States often watching on the sidelines. His scenarios are both plausible and potentially realistic, although no one can predict the future as he readily admits. Having been a student of Pentagon Yoda Andrew Marshall, he uses his exposure to the Office Net Assessment and his own experience together in this fascinating book. And though he places a lot of emphasis on joint Forces Command for leading the way in many of the recommendations he makes in the concluding section he could not foresee the closure of that command and how it was broken up into a number of pieces now run mostly by the Joint Staff. A must read for any military futurist or strategist.

  • Maria
    2019-05-23 21:10

    What if Pakistan broke out in civil war, with both factions controlling nuclear weapons? What if a nuclear bomb was used on US soil? What if a pandemic swept the world and our health care and borders collapsed? What if Iran developed a nuclear bomb and attacked Israel? Krepinevich explores these possibilities and more to jump start the conversation of what our military should be preparing for in the next ten years.Why I started this book: I put myself on hold for several books and this one just came in.Why I finished it: This would be an awesome book club pick... unfortunately two of the scenarios are already dated. (Book was published in 2009, and it hypothesized about Iraq and Afghanistan.)

  • Kevin
    2019-05-22 02:24

    A disturbing peek over the military horizon …Author Andrew Krepinevich has written a chilling cluster of future scenarios in which American power, society and safety may be challenged by both conventional and unconventional foes. 9/11 was minor league compared to some of the situations he describes.Krepinevich is neither predicting nor ruling out these set pieces, aiming to stimulate strategic thinking and planning for the American military as part of its war gaming. One can only hope that such scenarios remain in the realm of the abstract. Nevertheless, hope is not a strategy and it is this reader’s hope that “Seven Deadly Scenarios” becomes must reading at the Pentagon in order to heighten U.S. preparedness for a perilous world bristling with threats.

  • John
    2019-05-24 19:10

    A fascinating look at some potential future conflicts. As Krepinevich himself states, these scenarios aren't necessarily likely - rather, they're written with a level of hyperrealistic detail to illustrate potential shortcomings in the U.S. military posture. It's a quick but engrossing summary of some hotspots around the globe, if nothing else: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, China, Mexico and others. The author wears his politics on his sleeve in a few places but it's not glaring enough to be distracting.If you're looking to write military / spec-ops thrillers, or just get a better understanding in reading them, this book is essential. Even if you're not, it might still be fun.

  • Brandon Williams
    2019-05-14 02:06

    As the title indicates, the author presents seven very chilling realistic scenarios that could impact the world in a variety of ways, including a monstrous hike in oil prices due to a Middle East conflict. While 9/11 is nearly 15 years past us, the threat of a devastating attack that shakes the way of living in the developed world is one that is a reminder each of us should realize is a way of life. The Paris attacks last November would have been a horrifying eighth scenario. While the book is seven years old, we must hope that our government and armed forces have taken heed to the suggestions and scenarios Mr. Krepinevich so expertly displays.

  • Eric Rivero
    2019-05-11 20:16

    Tremendous insight into DoD strategists identified potential causes of future conflicts which could impact/draw in the United States. Some of the scenarios include China, plagued by a stumbling economy, invades Taiwan; Iran, mines the straits of Hormuz, and a viral epidemic in Mexico...amongst others. Very eye-opening and interesting. I thought each scenario went on longer than it needed to...averaged 30pgs/scenario. Should have been 20pgs max.

  • Frank Kelly
    2019-05-12 23:17

    Krepinevich offers seven global crisis scenarios -- more like war gaming exercises -- that could happen in the coming years. Ranging from Iran to China to Russia, each is scary in their own way, well thought out and quite provacative. For the political strategist as well as market strategists, this is a good book to feed your imagination and expand your vision of just what might happen one day (God forbid!).

  • Stacy
    2019-05-18 00:19

    For writers, this is an interesting study in projecting future realities based on current facts. I don't agree with several of his core premises, so I'm finding most of the scenarios implausible, but there's enough walk-through of how the projection process works to make for interesting reading (I am, admittedly, skipping some of the clunkier sections).

  • Dorothy
    2019-05-13 20:26

    Cool concept - scenarios imagined and detailed by a military futurist, a person paid to think up how current trends will project into the next 10-30 years. I never finished it due to a combination of (1) the book's dry nature, and (2) my paranoid nature. I really don't need anything else to worry about.

  • Kate
    2019-05-12 21:12

    This is a fascinating description of 7 possible scenarios the US may find itself in in the future. They range from domestic bombings to a pandemic to civil war in Pakistan. Basing these scenarios off of trends that have developed within the last 1-2 decades, Krepinevich paints believable pictures of a drastically different world.

  • Diane
    2019-05-13 19:08

    This book explores possible future military crises. The author has some prescient observations, particularly about Iraq and the Middle East, but his writing style isn't very engaging. He likes to develop scenarios using fake names for the president and advisors, and this detracts from the writing style.

  • Jake
    2019-05-21 21:31

    Very well researched. The author is very knowledgeable about the subject and helps the reader think outside the box in assessing different scenarios. However, it is not as layman friendly as I would have preferred.

  • Micah
    2019-05-04 18:23

    Deadly Scenario #8: The aliens from Signs come back wearing wetsuits. They tickle all the adults to death, leaving the children to take care of things Lord of the Flies style.Just something to think about...

  • Carol
    2019-04-28 21:18

    So far, the fake notations are really bugging me!

  • Loren
    2019-05-12 02:10

    Scary but a little far fetched and very little into how would be the best way to solve the problems. Hate having problems that people don't suggest an answer for.

  • Hassnain Farooq
    2019-05-09 18:08

    Well in making conspiracies Sky is the limit

  • Jared Sutton
    2019-05-14 20:22

    It was really good. Gave an interesting perspective on foreign policy.

  • James
    2019-05-03 19:31

    I am not entirely comfortable with the fact that this author has given seven very thorough ideas to anyone interested in destroying the planet

  • Patmead
    2019-05-13 20:13

    Food for thought. Scenario thinking is important for many things in life.